Moment of truth this morning.  Ran into work with the Garmin and measured the distance.  I'd previously plotted it on GMap at just over 13km (http://www.gmap-pedometer.com/?r=206274) and the Garmin has been almost identical to GMaps so was expecting something similar.
Started off at a good pace and was aiming to maintain 4:10kms all the way.  Struggled with all the hills in the first half getting to Spit Juntion (5.91km) in 25:18 - 4:16 per km.  I usually reach Spit Junction in 27-28mins so this was pretty quick.  Picked up the pace along Military Road, struggled over the bridge and got to work in 53:22.  Probably my quickest run to/from work that was not run as a tempo session.  However, the Garmin said it was only 12.73km(!) meaning an average pace of 4:12 p/km.  It might have lost a bit in the undercover steps that go back and forth on each other at the end of the Harbour Bridge but not 300m.  I think I'll stick with the GMap calculation for now...
 
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